Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham column: two bets at 20-1 and 14-1

Of course, my first assertion is not really an unpopular opinion. The volume of preview shows, and the number of people who attend or watch them, tells you that. It’s just fashionable among certain chattering classes to be snidey about them. Bizarre, really. Why, if you’re invested in the success of this sport, would you deride people seeking out conversation about it?

Yes, there will be a broad range of opinion, from the well-informed or well-researched to the otherwise, but you also get to hear first-hand live thinking from those closest to key contenders and you might just have your mind opened to a new way of assessing a horse, race or betting approach.

Personally, I find the benefit of previews threefold. First, you get to hear stuff; often important stuff. Second, other opinions often clarify my own thoughts by making me understand why I disagree. Third, hearing myself make an argument aloud often highlights to me its weaknesses in a way I don’t always notice when it’s outlined only in my head.

So, let’s embrace these luxurious days of yakety-yak because next week pesky fact will crush our most cherished theories.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves (what I believe we in the media are these days contractually obliged to describe as) “a horserace”. With one glorious affirmation – acts of God notwithstanding – the O’Leary brothers and Gordon Elliott have transformed this year’s Cheltenham Festival from Day One: Brighterdaysahead takes on Constitution Hill in the Unibet Champion Hurdle.

I do not believe I exaggerate. This is what the sport should be about: a returning champion clashing with an outstanding emerging talent, with the titleholder thrown in for good measure. Fie to those who said it wouldn’t happen. Now it only remains for connections of The Other Mare – the one said for two years to be running here – not to get cold feet.

I fear Lossiemouth might yet send her apologies. Of course, her fall in the Irish Champion Hurdle – though not hitherto raised as a problem – offers a face-saving reason for pulling a U-ey as the stark reality of the greater task becomes plainly apparent.

Furthermore, the presence of Brighterdaysahead and her sidekick pacemaker King Of Kingsfield means the pace will be unrelenting – stronger than either of the last two Champion Hurdles at least. That high tempo was diagnosed as the issue when Lossiemouth was taken off her feet by the early pace set by Burdett Road in the Christmas Hurdle – as fully discussed in Road 7 of this series (see below), alongside a full explanation of this column’s ante-post Champion Hurdle position.

Of course, Willie Mullins has since been training Lossiemouth with this purpose in mind – overlaying the work his team did over the last two seasons, when teaching her to settle was paramount. Might she be too keen for a last-minute switch to a longer race run at a lesser tempo?

And yet…Timeform rates her 9lb clear of recent Quevega Hurdle winner Jade De Grugy. Racing Post Ratings – which, we read, “may have swayed” the Brighterdaysahead decision according to (checks notes) the Racing Post – have her 3lb clear. Were Lossiemouth to maintain her Champion Hurdle course, it must be interpreted as a strong vote of confidence in her stablemate and seeming closest rival for the mares’ event.

If that strength of belief is not abounding at Closutton, Paul Townend will surely be agitating to ride one perceived Grade One Hurdle certainty at this year’s Festival rather than none. We know from the confessions of his predecessor in the role that this kind of thinking can have a powerful unseen influence on the decision-making process.

Therefore, it might come down to just how much owner Rich Ricci believes in the plan. Does he want finally to find out exactly what’s under Lossiemouth’s bonnet, thus playing an active role in the elite-level competition he consistently says is what attracts him to the sport? Or will the allure of a likelier 23rd Cheltenham Festival victory prove too great? We fans await his decision with a little less despondency than before.

Nicky Henderson isn’t waiting for the white smoke, however. Regardless of which way Lossiemouth jumps, he announced on the Racing Post/Unibet Cheltenham Preview show on Monday that he’ll be supplementing dominant William Hill Hurdle winner Joyeuse for the Mares’ event this week.

It remains to be seen whether Elliott makes the same move with Wodhooh, who beat Joyeuse conceding 8lb (including Danny Gilligan’s 3lb claim) at Cheltenham in December, but that mare already holds options in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe and he still has the similarly entered fellow five-year-old Kala Conti in the Grade One – plus the latter is in the County, too.

In this week’s Paddy Power Cheltenham Preview show (watch below), I suggested backing Gericault Roque at 20/1 NRNB each-way for the NH Chase. I meant it. Bet365 and Sky Bet are offering enhanced place terms down to fifth place in this race already at this stage, too.

Longstanding readers of this column might recall I tipped him to win the 2022 Ultima, only to see him finish second to some horse called Corach Rambler (did he ever amount to much?). He then substantiated that form with third in the following season’s Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy in old money) at Newbury on his next start over fences eight months later, doing best of the positively ridden horses.

Sadly, we didn’t then see him on the track for 783 days and I often wondered about him, until he pitched up at Windsor last month. He went with some verve, shaping as though retaining a good deal of his ability at a sharp track that wouldn’t have suited and is now 7-8lb lower than when attaining his two career highs.

He’s also entered in the Kim Muir – available at the same NRNB price if you’re not bothered about tying up two lots of money – and it might come down to which race he makes the cut for, but now both Festival events are handicaps, I’d strongly prefer him to contest the longer distance event. He’s always shaped like a marathon chaser and although he’s entered in the National, he’s got a snowball in hell’s chance of making the cut, so this is his best fit for a prestigious prize.

The 2023 Grand National winner, mentioned in passing above, also provides a link to my other handicap fancy at this stage.

In last Thursday’s Road To Cheltenham show with Matt Tombs in which we focussed on this year’s Festival handicaps, I also suggested backing Whistle Stop Tour at the 14/1 then available for the Ultima. He represents the Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore team who produced Corach Rambler to win the Ultima as a novice – a victory he followed up 12 months later.

Whistle Stop Tour has been given a sighter of Cheltenham – albeit admittedly the New Course rather than the Old, which he’ll face on Tuesday week – and acquitted himself creditably in a deep novices’ handicap chase on Trials Day behind Jack Richards ante-post favourite Jagwar over an inadequate trip.

His jumping was sound but not swift enough for the task at hand and rider Patrick Wadge did not persist when it was plain his mount could not get involved approaching the last. He's already proved his stamina for three miles – and suggested he may yet stay further in time – with successes at Kelso and Ayr.

Finally, I’d like to take a precautionary NRNB position on Touch Me Not in the Grand Annual in case Gordon Elliott opts to run this talented novice here rather than in the Arkle against two horses – Majborough and L’Eau Du Sud – who’ve already beaten him.

Whilst a strongly run two miles could also yet be the key that unlocks the chasing ability of stablemate Firefox, one of last season’s leading novice-hurdling talents, his jumping has not been anywhere near as assured as that of Touch Me Not and he might prove more comfortable in the Jack Richards.

Touch Me Not, on the other hand, has been a revelation over fences and also showed when second in the Irish Arkle that he doesn’t have to lead in order to produce his best. That means he has the ability to hold a handy position on terms with the leaders – the ideal spot for this specific task.

A British mark of 151 looks entirely feasible against more exposed rivals. Sky Pirate managed to win this race as a novice (admittedly in his second season over fences) in 2021 from a mark 1lb higher and Elliott himself took this race 12 months earlier with a lesser-achieving novice Chosen Mate from a mark of 147.

Advised 19/12/24: Majborough at 5/1 with Bet365 for the My Pension Expert Arkle Chase

Advised 02/01/25: Lossiemouth at 7/1 with Bet365 or BetMGM for the Unibet Champion Hurdle

Advised 11/01/25: Corbetts Cross 25/1 each-way with various firms for the Randox Grand National

Advised 27/02/25: Whistle Stop Tour at 14/1 NRNB with various firms for the Ultima Handicap Chase

Advised on 27/02/25: Feet Of A Dancer at 10/1 NRNB with various firms for the Pertemps Final

Advised on 27/02/25: Beyond Your Dreams at 10/1 NRNB with various firms for the Fred Winter

Advised 02/01/25: Gaelic Warrior at 5/1 with Paddy Power for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Advised 08/02/25: Better Days Ahead / Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase; Copacabana / Weatherbys Champion Bumper; Hello Neighbour / JCB Triumph Hurdle; Jasmin De Vaux / Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.